This links to the IAAF preview of the Rotterdam Marathon, taking place this weekend.Rotterdam is fast, and is surely putting forward a strong claim for inclusion in the World Marathon Majors series. In 2009, James Kwambai and Duncan Kibet broke the Kenyan record on this course. Last year Patrick Makau and Geoffrey Mutai ran super-fast times here as did Vincent Kipruto, who returns this year.World record? I wouldn’t rule it out.
5 reasons why Tsegay Kebede will win the London Marathon on April 17th…
1. He won last year
Kebede produced an excellent performance to win the race last year, improving on his second placing in 2009. He knows the course well and is a popular athlete who will have a lot of support on the streets of London. He isn’t afraid to push the pace and will take on anyone who fancies a race.
2. Kenyans
Prize money, pride and international acclaim aside, there is nothing that motivates an Ethiopian athlete quite like the idea of sticking it to the Kenyans. Gebrselassie loved beating Tergat. Defar and Dibaba love beating Masai and Cheruiyot. Imane Merga took great pleasure in brushing aside the whole Kenyan team at the recent world cross country, and as recently as last weekend, Dejen Gebremeskel couldn’t help but remind Eliud Kipchoge exactly who had crossed the finish line first at the Carlsbad 5k.
Kebede still holds the memory of some big defeats at the hands of Sammy Wanjiru, absent this year due to injury. This year the challenge from the southern neighbours comes courtesy of last year’s runner up Emmanuel Mutai, 3 time winner Martin Lel, world champion Abel Kirui and sub 2:05 man James Kwambai.
3. Consistency
Tsegay Kebede has run 9 major marathons in his career. The slowest of these was run in 2:10:00 and this was in the Olympic Games in Beijing. He has only finished outside the top 3 once and this was on his debut. He has a personal best of 2:05:18 and has finished within seconds of this time on other occasions. Throw in a few 2:06s and World and Olympic medals and you have the most consistent marathon racer around. The phrase ‘bad race’ is not in this man’s vocabulary.
4. The Course
Kebede runs his best races on flat courses. London fits that bill well. Although London is regarded by the elites as a twisty course, it generally produces quick times. Dave Bedford will have assembled a high quality team of pacemakers to make sure the pace stays high and that wheat and chaff are well and truly sorted. Not that our man will need them though. He is more than happy to take up the running and push the pace out of reach of weaker athletes.
5. World Championships
Assuming this summer’s world championships in South Korea are part of Kebede’s race plans, he will want to put down a marker to show the world he is the man to beat, as well as making sure he is the first name on the Ethiopian squad list. The marathon here will form part of the World Marathon Majors for 2010/2011, a title the Kebede is known to covet, particularly having lost so narrowly to Wanjiru at Chicago in October.
I don’t know how anyone can run that fast at the end of a marathon. One of many great duels between Wanjiru and Kebede. Shame there will be no repeat at London…
This past weekend was a big one for fans of athletics.
Domestically, the clubs turned out for the regional 12 stage relays, the qualifying events for the national at Sutton Park on April 9th, whilst some of the top British men and women tested their London Marathon fitness at the Reading Half, where 6 broke 65 minutes and 29 broke 70.
The big story of the weekend came from the Big Apple, where Galen Rupp and Mo Farah were making their highly anticipated debuts over 13.1 miles in the New York City Half Marathon. Facing them were the likes of Ryan Hall, Meb Keflezhigi, Peter Kamais and the man who won in this city on his full marathon debut in November, Gebre Gebremariam. British men’s marathoning has seen a decline in recent years and there are strong calls for Farah to step up to the long distances and reproduce his excellent track form on the roads. Rupp, his new training partner with Alberto Salazar’s Oregon Project, must have been asked the same questions about ‘stepping up’ in the States. And step up they did. Starting steadily, and still in a lead group of 10 at halfway, Farah and Rupp worked together to push the pace and drop everyone but Gebremariam, a renowned kicker. It came down to a final mile burn-up. Farah outkicked his Ethiopian rival in the closing metres to seal the win in 60:23, a truly world class time and a National record. Andrew Lemoncello, using the race as a warm up for London, ran a personal best time of 63 flat.
It must be remembered, of course, that the man whom Farah beat into second place on Sunday is not just an excellent road runner but a World Cross Country champion to boot. Sunday also saw the latest edition of this event, held this year in the Spanish Town of Punta Umbria. Say what you like about the decline in popularity of Cross Country, but the World Cross is one of the most competitive events on the planet. In conditions usually reserved for summer track meets – I imagine the British guys found it tough – last year’s star of the Diamond League circuit in the 5000m, Imane Merga, kicked away from the Kenyans to secure his first individual title. Having 4 of the top 5, Kenya wrapped up the team gold in style. Vivian Cheruiyot won the women’s race with her compatriot Linet Masai taking silver. The USA’s Shalane Flanagan impresed by winning the bronze medal.
With all this racing going on, Zersenay Tadese’s world record attempt at the Lisbon Half Marathon is unbelievably a footnote to this racing review. He came to Portugal last year to remove 10 seconds off Sammy Wanjiru’s record, running a staggering 58:23. He returned on Sunday to try and put the record further out of reach but fell short by 7 seconds. He now holds the two fastest times ever over the distance. The man is without question the best half marathon runner in the world.
It was announced this week that Paula Radcliffe will be making her competitive return on May 15th at the Great Manchester 10k.
With apologies to the likes of Coe, Cram, Holmes and Edwards, Paula Radcliffe is the greatest athlete ever to have emerged from within the British Isles. She holds every British record from 3000m upwards and holds multiple world championship titles on the track, the country and on roads. No Briton has pushed the boundaries of their event in the way that Radcliffe has, let alone put the boundaries out of sight of most of their competitors.
In my view, her marathon world record from London in 2003 (her finest hour – or more specifically 2 hours and 15 minutes) is the greatest in the books. It is better than Bolt’s 9.58, better than Komen’s 7:20, better than El Guerrouj’s 3:43, superior to Koch’s 47.60 and beats any of Isinbayeva’s vaults hands down. Say what you like about having a male pacemaker to drag her round the course but no other woman has come within three minutes of her best time. She was not just the fastest woman in the world that year but the fastest person in the UK, male or female. Astonishing. Of the current crop of female marathon runners, Mary Keitany is the only name that springs to mind capable of recording a time close to Paula’s 2:15:25.
But the one thing lacking from her expansive trophy cabinet (do athletes have those or is it just something I like to think they have?) is the Olympic medal for the marathon. As the number one female marathoner and newly crowned world record holder, the world had already draped the gold medal round Radcliffe’s neck before the 2004 Athens games had even begun. Stomach problems led to her withdrawing from the race and losing her chance of the gold medal that should have been hers. A similar story in Beijing four years later meant that for all her accolades, the one thing the Bedford athlete doesn’t possess is an Olympic gold.
Undoubtedly, Paula Radcliffe is one of the best athletes, along with the great Wilson Kipketer and others, never to have won gold at an Olympics. She has a chance to put an end to this injustice on home soil next summer, which is one of the reasons why I am so excited about the Games. No one deserves it more than her, and the prospect of her running down the Mall (not the Olympic Stadium track unfortunately – more on that another time perhaps) in the lead is one that would cap an otherwise perfect career.
So it is with excitement and anticipation that I await the Manchester 10k on May 15th, not just because I am running it but because it sees the start of the comeback of the greatest marathon runner of all time, and hopefully one that will be completed on August 5th 2012.
